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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.